Santa Claus Rally 2026: Dates (December 24 to January 5) and What the S&P 500 Did in All 76 Windows Since 1950

The Santa Claus rally has a precise definition, and it is not "stocks go up in December." Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac named it in 1972 for the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new one, a seven-session window. In 2026 that window is Thursday, December 24 (a 1:00 PM ET half day), Monday, December 28 through Thursday, December 31, and Monday, January 4 and Tuesday, January 5, 2027. The market is closed Friday, December 25 and Friday, January 1, per the NYSE holiday calendar.

We measured the S&P 500 over that window in every year since 1950, 76 windows in all. The index rose in 57 of them, 75%, with a median gain of +1.2%. A random seven-session stretch of the same index since 1950 is up 58% of the time with a median of +0.4%, so the window is real: better odds and roughly three times the typical move. Two things make this year's version worth a closer look. The rally has failed three Decembers in a row, -0.9% in 2023, -0.5% in 2024 and -0.1% in 2025, the first three-year miss in the record. And the old line that follows every miss, "if Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall," has been wrong all three times: the S&P 500 returned +23.3% in 2024, +16.4% in 2025, and is +10.2% so far in 2026 through November 2. The full record, what January and the following year did after every hit and every miss, and which of the seven sessions actually carries the rally are below.

The 2026 window, session by session

• Thursday, December 24: half day, 1:00 PM ET close (1:15 PM for options). Session one of seven.
• Friday, December 25: closed.
• Monday, December 28 to Thursday, December 31: sessions two through five, full days. December 31 is the last session of 2026 and the close that the year's return is measured from.
• Friday, January 1, 2027: closed.
• Monday, January 4 and Tuesday, January 5, 2027: sessions six and seven. The window closes with the January 5 close.

The run-up matters too. Triple witching is Friday, December 18, the Fed's last 2026 meeting is December 8-9 per its calendar, and the week before that is the Thanksgiving stretch with its own half day. The pre-holiday effect post covers the single session before each market holiday since 1950, which overlaps session one here.

The record: 57 up, 19 not, median +1.2%

Mean +1.2%, median +1.2%. The biggest window was +7.5% in 2008, the worst -4.0% in 1999. In 2 of the 76 windows all seven sessions closed up, and no window has had fewer than two up sessions. The longest run of hits was ten straight, 1956 through 1965. By decade:

• 1950s: 9 of 10 up, median +2.1%.
• 1960s: 8 of 10 up, median +0.5%.
• 1970s: 8 of 10 up, median +2.5%.
• 1980s: 8 of 10 up, median +1.6%.
• 1990s: 6 of 10 up, median +0.2%.
• 2000s: 7 of 10 up, median +1.3%.
• 2010s: 8 of 10 up, median +0.7%.
• 2020s: 3 of 6 up, median +0.3%.

The 2020s are the weak decade so far: 3 of 6, and the three misses are the three most recent years. All three were small, none worse than -0.9%, which is a different thing from the -4.0% of 1999 or the -2.5% of 2007.

Does a missed rally predict a bad year? The numbers say not much

The saying has a testable claim in it: a miss should be followed by a weak year. Here is every window that failed to close up, with what the S&P 500 did for the rest of January and over the following calendar year:

• 1955: window -0.9%, January 1956 -3.6%, full year 1956 +2.6%.
• 1966: window -1.4%, January 1967 +7.8%, full year 1967 +20.1%.
• 1968: window -1.2%, January 1969 -0.8%, full year 1969 -11.4%.
• 1977: window -0.3%, January 1978 -6.2%, full year 1978 +1.1%.
• 1979: window -2.2%, January 1980 +5.8%, full year 1980 +25.8%.
• 1981: window -1.9%, January 1982 -1.8%, full year 1982 +14.8%.
• 1984: window -0.6%, January 1985 +7.4%, full year 1985 +26.3%.
• 1990: window -3.0%, January 1991 +4.2%, full year 1991 +26.3%.
• 1992: window -1.1%, January 1993 +0.7%, full year 1993 +7.1%.
• 1993: window -0.1%, January 1994 +3.2%, full year 1994 -1.5%.
• 1999: window -4.0%, January 2000 -5.1%, full year 2000 -10.1%.
• 2004: window -1.8%, January 2005 -2.5%, full year 2005 +3.0%.
• 2006: window 0.0%, January 2007 +1.4%, full year 2007 +3.5%.
• 2007: window -2.5%, January 2008 -6.1%, full year 2008 -38.5%.
• 2014: window -3.0%, January 2015 -3.1%, full year 2015 -0.7%.
• 2015: window -2.3%, January 2016 -5.1%, full year 2016 +9.5%.
• 2023: window -0.9%, January 2024 +1.6%, full year 2024 +23.3%.
• 2024: window -0.5%, January 2025 +2.7%, full year 2025 +16.4%.
• 2025: window -0.1%, January 2026 +1.4%, full year 2026 +10.2% year to date.

After the 18 misses with a full following year, that year was up 13 times with a median of +5.3%. After the 57 hits, the following year was up 42 times with a median of +12.8%. So the miss years have been worse on average, and they include 2007 and 1999, the two years most often cited for it. But 13 of 18 is still up more often than not, and 1990, 1984, 1979 and 2023 were followed by gains of 23% to 26%. January itself was up after 36 of 57 hits and 10 of 19 misses. A failed window is a mild negative, not a signal.

Which of the seven sessions carries it

Measured session by session across all 76 windows, close to close:

• Session 1 (usually December 24): up 48 of 76, median +0.13%.
• Session 2: up 51 of 76, median +0.15%.
• Session 3: up 41 of 76, median +0.07%.
• Session 4: up 46 of 76, median +0.07%.
• Session 5 (the last trading day of the year): up 44 of 76, median +0.14%.
• Session 6 (the first trading day of the new year): up 38 of 76, median 0.00%.
• Session 7: up 51 of 76, median +0.34%.

The strongest single session is the last one, the second trading day of January, up 51 of 76 with a median of +0.34%. The weakest is the first trading day of the year, up 38 of 76, median 0.00%. The half day that opens the window is up 48 of 76; the pre-holiday post looks at that session on its own, against every other pre-holiday day.

A weak December sets up a bigger window

In the 26 years when the S&P 500 was down from the start of December to the eve of the window, the window closed up 20 times with a median of +1.8%. In the 50 years when December was already up going in, the window closed up 37 times with a median of +1.1%. The two biggest windows in the record, 2008 (+7.5%) and 1974 (+7.2%), both came after a December that had fallen 3.7% and 5.7% into the window, in the middle of bear markets. A big window does not carry into January either: of the 21 windows that gained 2% or more, the rest of January was up 12 times, median +0.6%.

The tape is thin, and that is part of it

Using SPY from 1993 on, volume across the seven window sessions has run at a median 0.72 times the average of the earlier December sessions, so roughly 28% lighter. The last five years: 2021 0.62x, 2022 0.81x, 2023 1.05x, 2024 0.97x, 2025 0.74x. 2023 is the exception, the one recent window that traded at normal volume. Thin tape cuts both ways: the same dollars move prices more, which is one reason the window has outsized moves in both directions and why the extremes cluster in crisis years.

The five biggest and five worst windows

• 2008: +7.5%. December into the window -3.7%, rest of January -10.9%, year 2009 +23.4%.
• 1974: +7.2%. December into the window -5.7%, rest of January +8.9%, year 1975 +31.6%.
• 1973: +6.7%. December into the window -2.5%, rest of January -3.2%, year 1974 -29.7%.
• 2000: +5.7%. December into the window -3.0%, rest of January +1.4%, year 2001 -13.0%.
• 1991: +5.7%. December into the window +5.8%, rest of January -2.5%, year 1992 +4.5%.
• 1999: -4.0%. December into the window +5.0%, rest of January -0.3%, year 2000 -10.1%.
• 1990: -3.0%. December into the window +3.0%, rest of January +6.8%, year 1991 +26.3%.
• 2014: -3.0%. December into the window +0.7%, rest of January -1.3%, year 2015 -0.7%.
• 2007: -2.5%. December into the window +0.2%, rest of January -4.7%, year 2008 -38.5%.
• 2015: -2.3%. December into the window -0.8%, rest of January -3.8%, year 2016 +9.5%.

The last fifteen windows

• 2011 to 2012: +1.9% (5 of 7 sessions up), then +4.4% for January.
• 2012 to 2013: +2.0% (2 of 7 sessions up), then +5.0% for January.
• 2013 to 2014: +0.2% (3 of 7 sessions up), then -3.6% for January.
• 2014 to 2015: -3.0% (2 of 7 sessions up), then -3.1% for January.
• 2015 to 2016: -2.3% (2 of 7 sessions up), then -5.1% for January.
• 2016 to 2017: +0.4% (4 of 7 sessions up), then +1.8% for January.
• 2017 to 2018: +1.1% (4 of 7 sessions up), then +5.6% for January.
• 2018 to 2019: +1.3% (4 of 7 sessions up), then +7.9% for January.
• 2019 to 2020: +0.3% (4 of 7 sessions up), then -0.2% for January.
• 2020 to 2021: +1.0% (5 of 7 sessions up), then -1.1% for January.
• 2021 to 2022: +1.4% (3 of 7 sessions up), then -5.3% for January.
• 2022 to 2023: +0.8% (3 of 7 sessions up), then +6.2% for January.
• 2023 to 2024: -0.9% (4 of 7 sessions up), then +1.6% for January.
• 2024 to 2025: -0.5% (2 of 7 sessions up), then +2.7% for January.
• 2025 to 2026: -0.1% (3 of 7 sessions up), then +1.4% for January.

How we handle the window, and what we leave alone

We do not trade the calendar. A 75% hit rate with a median gain near 1% is a tendency, not an edge you can size a position on, and the three recent misses are a reminder. What the window changes is the conditions: a half day on the 24th, two closures, and volume a quarter lighter than normal, which means wider spreads and sharper moves per dollar. Three settings do the work on the JorgAI auto-trader. The daily spend limit caps how much new money goes to work on any one session. Max open positions keeps the book from filling up on thin days. A trailing stop on every position handles the exit whether the move comes on December 28 or January 5, without anyone at the screen on the half day. If you would rather sit the week out, switching auto trading off for the window stops new entries and leaves the stops on the open positions in place. The settings glossary explains each one, and you can set those rules up in a few minutes.

The rest of the holiday stretch is in the Thanksgiving week post and the November calendar; the December calendar will follow at the end of the month. If you want to watch how the mechanics behave on a sample account before connecting a broker, start with the demo.

Quick answers

When is the Santa Claus rally in 2026?

December 24, 28, 29, 30 and 31, 2026, and January 4 and 5, 2027: the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new one. The market is closed December 25 and January 1, and December 24 is a 1:00 PM ET half day.

How often does the Santa Claus rally happen?

In 57 of the 76 years since 1950, about 75%, with a median gain of +1.2% for the S&P 500. It has missed the last three years, 2023, 2024 and 2025, the first three-year miss in the record.

What happens if there is no Santa Claus rally?

Historically, a weaker following year on average but still an up year more often than not: after the 18 misses with a full year of data, the next year rose 13 times with a median of +5.3%, against 42 of 57 and +12.8% after a hit. The three most recent misses were followed by +23.3%, +16.4% and a 2026 that is +10.2% so far.

Is the stock market open on December 24, 2026?

Yes, until 1:00 PM ET (1:15 PM for options). It is closed Friday, December 25 and Friday, January 1, 2027, and open full days on December 28 through 31 and January 4 and 5.