October 2026 CPI Report (November 10): What the S&P 500 Did on All 222 CPI Days Since 2008, and Why a 3.7% Starting Point Changes the Odds

The October 2026 Consumer Price Index comes out on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, per the BLS release schedule. It is the only CPI report the Federal Reserve will see before its December 8-9 meeting, because the November CPI is not published until December 10, the day after that meeting ends. It follows the September report that showed headline inflation at 3.7%, the highest reading of the year, and the October jobs report on Friday, November 6.

Rather than guess the number, this page measures what the S&P 500 has done on every CPI release day since the BLS archive begins in February 2008: 222 reports, each matched to the index's open, close and range that day and to the inflation rate the report carried. The short version: an average CPI day is barely more eventful than an ordinary day, but CPI days arriving with headline inflation at 3% or higher, which is where November 10 starts, have moved the index about 60% more than usual, and the direction set at the 8:30 AM print has held to the close 85% of the time when the opening gap was at least 0.3%.

When the October 2026 CPI report comes out

Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, one hour before the stock market opens. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the full release, tables and the month-on-month and 12-month changes for headline and core CPI at the same moment. The following report, for November, is scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026, and the January 2027 report for January 13. Stock index futures trade through the 8:30 AM release, which is why most of the day's move is usually visible before the 9:30 AM open.

Two dates frame it. The Fed decides on October 28, this afternoon as this page is published, and then does not meet again until December 8-9, per the FOMC calendar. And the October jobs report lands four days earlier, on November 6, per the BLS employment schedule, so by the time CPI prints the market will already have one October data point.

What the September report said, and what carried into October

The September CPI, released October 14, showed prices up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, with core CPI up 0.3% and 2.6%. Energy rose 5.2% in the month and gasoline 9.1%, which was about half the headline gain. The 12-month rate stepped up from 3.4% in August and 3.3% in July (FRED CPIAUCSL, which also puts core at 2.5% in August). The S&P 500 fell 1.1% that day, the second-largest CPI-day drop of 2026; the September preview has the full reaction.

The input that drove September is not repeating in October, at least not in the retail price. Regular gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon across September's weekly readings and $4.31 across October's four so far, with the latest week at $4.27 and the AAA national average at $4.25 on October 28, so the pump price is roughly 1% lower than its September average rather than 9% higher. That says nothing about shelter, food or services, which is where the core number is decided, and nothing about seasonal adjustment; it only says the September headline's biggest single push is absent.

One oddity to know before the number prints: the October 2025 index, the base for the 12-month comparison, was never collected. The BLS did not publish an October 2025 CPI report during the federal shutdown; the series resumed with the November 2025 release, and FRED carries no October 2025 observation at all. The two-month change from September to November 2025 was 0.25% for headline CPI and 0.19% for core, so whatever October 2025 value the BLS uses as the base for November 10 is a month with no published reading of its own. It will not change the direction of the headline, but it is one reason to weight the month-on-month figure, which has no such problem.

What the S&P 500 did on 222 CPI days

Release dates come from the BLS news-release archive (every CPI release from February 2008 to October 2026), prices from the S&P 500's daily open, high, low and close, and the inflation rate each report carried from FRED. Two trading days are dropped where the release fell on a market holiday. Across all 222 days, the index closed higher 57% of the time against 54% on every trading day in the same span; the median absolute move was 0.55% against 0.52%; and the median intraday range was 0.97%, the same as any other day. On average, a CPI day is an ordinary day with a known 8:30 AM start.

The averages hide the years that matter. In 2008 the median CPI-day move was 2.08% against 1.11% on ordinary days, and in 2022 it was 1.73% against 0.96%: the two years when inflation was the market's main question, CPI day moved the index roughly twice as much as a normal session. In 2017 the median CPI-day move was 0.15%. In 2026 so far it has been 0.23% across ten reports, the quietest year since 2017, which is the same ten reports that include a 1.62% drop on June 10 (the 4.2% print), a 0.86% gain on September 11 and the 1.11% drop on October 14. Quiet medians and loud exceptions is the normal shape of this series.

• Inflation at 3% or higher changes the day. On the 66 CPI days when the headline rate in the report was 3% or more, the median absolute move was 0.81% and the median range 1.29%, against 0.50% and 0.92% on the 156 days below 3%. The median opening gap was 0.31% against 0.11%. November 10 starts at 3.7%.
• The 8:30 AM direction usually holds. On the 67 days when the S&P 500 opened at least 0.3% away from the prior close, it closed in the same direction 85% of the time, and only 27% of the time did the close end up smaller than the opening gap. The reversal days people remember are the minority.
• Since 2022 the gap is the event. The median absolute opening gap on CPI days has been 0.42% since 2022 against 0.10% from 2008 to 2021, while the close-to-close move grew far less (0.72% against 0.54%). The market now reacts in the hour before the open and spends the session digesting.
• Whether core is rising or falling matters more than whether headline is. When the 12-month core rate in the report was lower than the prior month's (84 days), the index closed up 65% of the time; when core was higher (78 days), 53%. The same split on headline inflation (up 105 days, down 94) gave 56% and 59%, close to noise.
• November releases have been slightly weaker on the day and stronger the week after. The 17 October-CPI reports published in November closed up only 7 times (median move -0.13%), but 14 of the 17 were higher a week later, a median gain of 0.92%. Seventeen is a small sample and this is noted, not relied on.
• The biggest CPI days. November 19, 2008 (-6.1%), November 10, 2022 (+5.5%, the 7.7% print that came in below the prior 8.2%), December 16, 2008 (+5.1%), March 11, 2020 (-4.9%), August 18, 2011 (-4.5%), September 13, 2022 (-4.3%, the 8.3% print that was expected to fall further) and April 10, 2025 (-3.5%). Four of the seven happened with headline inflation above 3%.

Why this report carries more than usual

Three reasons, none of which is a prediction of the number. First, the Fed's December 8-9 meeting will have this CPI and no newer one: the November report lands on December 10. Second, the September print broke a run of 3.3% to 3.4% readings to the upside, so the question of whether 3.7% was the start of a trend or a gasoline month gets answered here. Third, the October 28 decision is being made this afternoon with the September data as its last inflation reading; whatever the Fed says today about the path ahead, November 10 is the first check on it. What stocks did after every Fed pause since 1994 covers today's meeting, and the PCE against CPI explainer covers why the Fed's preferred gauge, released later in the month, can tell a different story.

How to prepare for November 10 without predicting the number

We build an automated trader, and CPI mornings are one of the days it is set up for rather than around. The practical points, from the data above and from how our members' accounts are configured: Anyone can set up the same rules in a free account before the report lands.

• Size positions for a 0.8% day, not a 0.5% day. That is the median on 3%-and-up CPI days. A position whose stop sits 0.5% away is inside the normal range of the morning.
• Do not fade the 8:30 AM gap by reflex. Direction held 85% of the time on meaningful gaps. If a rule says the opening move reverses, the data says it usually does not.
• Watch core first. The split in the data that moved the odds was the core rate's direction, not the headline's. The first headline on the wire at 8:30 is the headline figure; the core line is a few seconds later in the same release.
• Remember the base-month problem. A surprising 12-month figure on November 10 may be partly the unpublished October 2025 base. The month-on-month change is the cleaner number.

Let the exits run at the broker. A stop-loss and a take-profit that already sit at the broker do not need you to be awake at 8:30. How to automate stop-losses covers the mechanics; members set theirs once from the start page and the auto-trader carries them through every report.

What comes after CPI

The producer price index and retail sales follow within days, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure arrives late in the month, and the November CPI on December 10 lands the morning after the December decision. For anyone trading by rules, the VIX guide shows what each volatility level has meant for forward returns, which is a more useful input on CPI week than a forecast of the number. The blackout-period study covers the quiet weeks before each Fed meeting; the one before December 8-9 starts on November 28.

Quick answers

When is the October 2026 CPI report? Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What was the last CPI reading? September 2026: headline 3.7% over 12 months and 0.6% on the month; core 2.6% and 0.3%. Released October 14, 2026.

How much does the stock market move on CPI day? Since 2008 the median S&P 500 move on a CPI release day is 0.55%, almost the same as any other day. On days when the report shows inflation at 3% or higher the median is 0.81%, and since 2022 the opening gap alone has had a median of 0.42%.

Is the October CPI the last one before the December Fed meeting? Yes. The November CPI is published on December 10, after the December 8-9 meeting.

Why is the October 2026 annual rate harder to read? No October 2025 CPI report was published during the 2025 shutdown, and FRED has no observation for that month. The 12-month comparison on November 10 therefore rests on a base month with no published reading; the month-on-month change does not.

Data: BLS CPI release schedule, the September 2026 CPI release and the BLS news-release archive (222 CPI release dates, February 2008 to October 2026), read October 28, 2026; S&P 500 daily open, high, low and close from Yahoo Finance; CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL and weekly regular gasoline (GASREGW) from FRED; AAA national average, October 28, 2026; FOMC calendar from the Federal Reserve. Medians are used throughout because a handful of 2008 and 2022 days dominate averages. Past moves on report days are not a forecast of November 10. Nothing here is investment advice.