Fed Meeting December 8-9, 2026: What the S&P 500 Did After Every December Fed Decision Since 1994 (Hikes, Cuts and Holds)

The Federal Reserve's last meeting of 2026 is Tuesday and Wednesday, December 8-9, with the statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, a new Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, and the press conference at 2:30 PM. It arrives with a hike on the table: the Fed raised rates in September for the first time since July 2023, then held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 by a 10 to 2 vote, with both dissenters preferring a quarter-point increase. In the days after that meeting the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a December hike above 80%.

We measured what the S&P 500 did around every December Fed decision since 1994, 32 meetings in all: 7 hikes, 6 cuts and 19 no-change decisions. The headline is that the decision day is usually quiet, up 20 of 32 times with a median move of +0.14%, and the index was higher at year-end than on decision day in 22 of 32 years, median +0.59%. The split by decision is the useful part. After the seven December hikes the index finished the year higher only twice, median -0.64% from the decision close; after the nineteen holds it finished higher seventeen times, median +1.33%. Seven is a small sample, and the two worst cases, 2018 and 2022, were hikes into a market that was already falling. The full list is below so you can see each year rather than trust an average.

The December 2026 meeting: what is on the table

Per the Fed's calendar, December 8-9 is one of the four meetings a year that comes with projections, so the market gets three things at once: the rate decision, the committee's median path for 2027, and Chair Powell's press conference. The blackout period, when officials stop speaking publicly, begins Saturday, November 28. The data between now and then: the October jobs report on November 6, the October CPI on November 10, the November jobs report on December 4 and the November CPI on December 10, which lands the morning after the decision. The 2026 cycle so far: one quarter-point hike in September (unanimous), a hold in October with two dissents for a hike, and inflation that the October statement still called elevated.

For how the index has behaved at the meeting after a pause, the October 28 post measured all 20 pauses since 1994 and the 30 follow-up hikes. This post narrows to December, because the last meeting of the year has its own setting: thin holiday volume, triple witching on December 18, tax-loss selling, and the Santa Claus rally window that opens on December 24.

Every December Fed decision since 1994, and what the S&P 500 did

Each line: the decision date, the decision and the rate after it, then the S&P 500's move on the decision day (close to close), the next day, five sessions later, and from the decision-day close to the last close of the year. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes; decision dates from the Fed's own statements.

• December 20, 1994: hold (5.50%). Day -0.18%, next day +0.55%, week +0.82%, to year-end +0.47%.
• December 19, 1995: cut 25 (5.50%). Day +0.84%, next day -0.98%, week +0.42%, to year-end +0.65%.
• December 17, 1996: hold (5.25%). Day +0.70%, next day +0.76%, week +3.44%, to year-end +2.02%.
• December 16, 1997: hold (5.50%). Day +0.48%, next day -0.26%, week -2.99%, to year-end +0.25%.
• December 22, 1998: hold (4.75%). Day +0.06%, next day +2.07%, week +2.36%, to year-end +2.13%.
• December 21, 1999: hold (5.50%). Day +1.08%, next day +0.19%, week +2.09%, to year-end +2.50%.
• December 19, 2000: hold (6.50%). Day -1.30%, next day -3.13%, week +1.79%, to year-end +1.12%.
• December 11, 2001: cut 25 (1.75%). Day -0.28%, next day +0.03%, week +0.54%, to year-end +1.00%.
• December 10, 2002: hold (1.25%). Day +1.40%, next day +0.06%, week -0.16%, to year-end -2.72%.
• December 9, 2003: hold (1.00%). Day -0.85%, next day -0.11%, week +1.41%, to year-end +4.88%.
• December 14, 2004: hike 25 (2.25%). Day +0.39%, next day +0.19%, week +0.17%, to year-end +0.71%.
• December 13, 2005: hike 25 (4.25%). Day +0.56%, next day +0.42%, week -0.62%, to year-end -1.51%.
• December 12, 2006: hold (5.25%). Day -0.10%, next day +0.12%, week +0.99%, to year-end +0.48%.
• December 11, 2007: cut 25 (4.25%). Day -2.53%, next day +0.61%, week -1.53%, to year-end -0.63%.
• December 16, 2008: cut to 0-0.25% (0-0.25%). Day +5.14%, next day -0.96%, week -5.48%, to year-end -1.09%.
• December 16, 2009: hold (0-0.25%). Day +0.11%, next day -1.18%, week +1.03%, to year-end +0.53%.
• December 14, 2010: hold (0-0.25%). Day +0.09%, next day -0.51%, week +1.05%, to year-end +1.29%.
• December 13, 2011: hold (0-0.25%). Day -0.87%, next day -1.13%, week +1.27%, to year-end +2.60%.
• December 12, 2012: hold (0-0.25%). Day +0.04%, next day -0.63%, week +0.51%, to year-end -0.16%.
• December 18, 2013: hold (0-0.25%). Day +1.66%, next day -0.06%, week +1.73%, to year-end +2.08%.
• December 17, 2014: hold (0-0.25%). Day +2.04%, next day +2.40%, week +3.43%, to year-end +2.29%.
• December 16, 2015: hike 25 (0.25-0.50%). Day +1.45%, next day -1.50%, week -0.42%, to year-end -1.41%.
• December 14, 2016: hike 25 (0.50-0.75%). Day -0.81%, next day +0.39%, week +0.53%, to year-end -0.64%.
• December 13, 2017: hike 25 (1.25-1.50%). Day -0.05%, next day -0.41%, week +0.62%, to year-end +0.40%.
• December 19, 2018: hike 25 (2.25-2.50%). Day -1.54%, next day -1.58%, week -0.72%, to year-end 0.00%.
• December 11, 2019: hold (1.50-1.75%). Day +0.29%, next day +0.86%, week +1.58%, to year-end +2.84%.
• December 16, 2020: hold (0-0.25%). Day +0.18%, next day +0.58%, week -0.30%, to year-end +1.48%.
• December 15, 2021: hold (0-0.25%). Day +1.63%, next day -0.87%, week -0.28%, to year-end +1.20%.
• December 14, 2022: hike 50 (4.25-4.50%). Day -0.61%, next day -2.49%, week -2.93%, to year-end -3.90%.
• December 13, 2023: hold (5.25-5.50%). Day +1.37%, next day +0.26%, week -0.19%, to year-end +1.33%.
• December 18, 2024: cut 25 (4.25-4.50%). Day -2.95%, next day -0.09%, week +2.82%, to year-end +0.16%.
• December 10, 2025: cut 25 (3.50-3.75%). Day +0.67%, next day +0.21%, week -2.40%, to year-end -0.60%.

The seven December hikes

December 14, 2004 (+0.71% to year-end), December 13, 2005 (-1.51%), December 16, 2015 (-1.41%), December 14, 2016 (-0.64%), December 13, 2017 (+0.40%), December 19, 2018 (0.00%) and December 14, 2022 (-3.90%). Four of the seven were the tail end of a gradual cycle that the market had fully priced; the index drifted. The two that hurt were different in kind. In 2018 the Fed hiked into a quarter in which the S&P 500 was already down 10%, the dot plot kept two more hikes for 2019, and the index fell 1.5% that day and another 1.6% the next, on its way to the December 24 low; the year-end figure of 0.00% hides a 7.7% drop and a 7.7% recovery inside twelve sessions. In 2022 the half-point hike was expected, but the projections moved the 2023 rate higher than the market had assumed, and the index fell 2.5% the next day and 3.9% into year-end.

The December 2026 setup rhymes with the first group more than the second: a telegraphed quarter point in a cycle that has moved once, with the index near its highs rather than in a drawdown. But the thing that moved markets in 2018 and 2022 was not the hike. It was the dot plot showing more hikes than expected. That is the number to watch at 2:00 PM on December 9.

The six December cuts

December 19, 1995, December 11, 2001, December 11, 2007, December 16, 2008, December 18, 2024 and December 10, 2025. The cuts produced the two largest decision-day moves in the whole set, in opposite directions. On December 16, 2008 the Fed cut to a 0 to 0.25% range and the index rose 5.1% in a session. On December 18, 2024 the Fed cut a quarter point as expected but its projections halved the number of 2025 cuts, and the index fell 2.95%, its worst Fed day since 2001. Same decision type, opposite reaction, because the surprise was in the projections both times. Into year-end the six cuts split three up and three down, median -0.22%.

The nineteen holds

Holds are the calm case. The decision day was up 14 of 19 times (median +0.18%), the following week 14 of 19 (median +1.05%), and the stretch to year-end 17 of 19 (median +1.33%). The two exceptions were December 2002 (-2.72% into year-end, in a bear market) and December 2012 (-0.16%, the fiscal-cliff standoff). The biggest hold-day gain was December 17, 2014 (+2.04%), when the statement's new word, patient, told the market the first hike was still months away. Why holds look so good is partly selection: the Fed held in December when nothing was on fire, and the seasonal tendency of late December, the one measured across 76 years in the Santa Claus rally post, did the rest.

Why the decision day is usually quiet

A move of 1% or more happened on 12 of the 32 December decision days, and the biggest two were the 2008 and 2024 cases above. Decisions are telegraphed; what moves the index on the day is the gap between the projections and what was priced, and the press conference. The day after is slightly more likely to be down than up (16 of 32) and the median is flat, which is the usual pattern of a market that repositions once it has slept on the dots.

What a rules-based system does on Fed day, and what it does not

We do not trade the calendar, and this record does not change that. Thirty-two Decembers split three ways is not an edge you can size a position on; it is context for the risk settings you already have. What our auto-trader does on December 9 is what it does every day: scan during the session, buy only when a setup clears the member's confidence floor, cap the day's spending at the member's limit, and let the member's daily loss limit stop buying if the afternoon goes wrong. Members who prefer to sit out a Fed afternoon switch auto trading off and back on; nothing about the day requires it. Bitcoin's reaction to the same meetings is measured separately for the crypto side.

Quick answers

When is the December 2026 Fed meeting?

Tuesday and Wednesday, December 8-9, 2026. The statement comes at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, with the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, and the press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The blackout period starts Saturday, November 28.

Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?

That is not something this page predicts. The record going in: a quarter-point hike in September 2026, a hold on October 28 by a 10 to 2 vote with both dissents in favor of a hike, and inflation the statement still called elevated. In the days after the October meeting the CME FedWatch tool priced a December hike above 80%. The October CPI on November 10 and the November jobs report on December 4 are the two reports that can move that number.

What does the S&P 500 do after a December rate hike?

In the seven December hikes since 1994 the index closed the decision day lower four times (median -0.05%), was lower a week later four times (median -0.42%), and finished the year above the decision-day close only twice (median -0.64%). The two worst cases, 2018 and 2022, were hikes whose projections pointed to more hikes than the market expected.

What does the S&P 500 do when the Fed holds in December?

In the nineteen December holds since 1994 the index rose on the day 14 times (median +0.18%) and was higher at year-end 17 times (median +1.33%).

Is the stock market open on the Fed decision day?

Yes, December 9, 2026 is a normal full session, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET. The decision lands at 2:00 PM ET, so the last two hours of the session carry the reaction.

Data: S&P 500 daily closes from Yahoo Finance; December decision dates from the Federal Reserve's historical FOMC calendars and statements (1994 to 2025), decisions from the statements and the fed funds target history. Moves are close to close; the year-end figure runs from the decision-day close to the last close of the year. Thirty-two observations, seven of them hikes, is a small sample, and past Decembers are not a forecast of this one. Education, not financial advice.

The rest of the stretch is in the November calendar, the Santa Claus rally post and the first-hike history. If you want rules that run the same way on a Fed afternoon as on any other, start a free trial and set the confidence floor and daily loss limit before December 9.