Applied Materials Earnings November 12, 2026: AMAT on 93 Report Days

Applied Materials reports its fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026 results after the stock market closes on Thursday, November 12, 2026, with the conference call at 4:30 PM Eastern, 1:30 PM Pacific, webcast on its investor relations site. Its fiscal year ends in late October, so this is the report that closes the year. Friday, November 13 is the first full session to trade on the numbers.

Across all 93 Applied Materials earnings reports since August 2003, the stock rose the next session 48 times and fell 45 times. The typical move was 2.5% in either direction, about twice its median move on an ordinary day, and 23 of the 93 moved it 5% or more. Two things about AMAT are unlike most large stocks on report day: the opening gap reversed by the close on 32 of the 93, one report in three, and the record has turned negative in this decade, with 16 of the 26 reports since 2020 closing lower.

• The report: Thursday, November 12, after the close; call at 4:30 PM Eastern.
• The company's own guidance: revenue of $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.02, plus or minus $0.20, from its August 13 release.
• Analyst consensus: about $4.06 a share on $10.30 billion of revenue per Earnings Whispers on November 4, with a whisper number of $4.20; about $4.00 and $10.3 billion in Hudson Labs' preview of October 12.
• The stock going in: $395.08 at Wednesday's close, up 54.3% for 2026 but 45.4% below its June 30 record close of $723.00, and down 11.5% over the last 20 sessions even after a 23.8% rebound from last Thursday's low.

What Applied Materials guided, and what analysts expect

Applied Materials set the bar on August 13, when it reported a record third quarter. Its guidance for the fourth quarter, from the press release filed with the SEC, sits next to the consensus figures below. The comparison column is the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reported November 13, 2025, when revenue was $6.80 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $2.17.

Both consensus numbers are above the midpoint of the company's ranges, and the whisper number of $4.20 is at the top of the EPS range. The guidance itself implies the fastest growth in the company's history: at the midpoint, revenue up 51% and non-GAAP EPS up 85% from a year earlier. Hudson Labs' memo puts the Semiconductor Systems guide at about $7.9 billion, up 62%, and services at about $1.84 billion, up 22%.

What moved the stock in August

The third quarter beat on both lines: record revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25% from $7.30 billion, and record non-GAAP EPS of $3.50, up 41%, against a consensus of $3.40, per Zacks. Gross margin reached 50.4%, and the fourth-quarter revenue guide of $10.25 billion was far above the $9.84 billion consensus at the time. CEO Gary Dickerson called it the highest sequential revenue growth in the company's history and said he expects another strong growth year in 2027.

The stock still opened 6.6% lower on August 14 and closed down 5.1%, from $534.54 to $507.18. It had risen 108.5% in 2026 to the day of the report, and the reading from Zacks was that expectations and the multiple had run ahead of a beat-and-raise. Twenty sessions after the report it was 16.3% lower still. The two things to watch this time are the same: whether the full-year 2027 outlook holds up next to a stock that has already repriced, and whether gross margin stays near 50% while the company adds capacity.

China is a smaller share of revenue than it was

China was 28% of Applied Materials' revenue in the third quarter, down from 35% a year earlier, per the release. For fiscal 2025 as a whole it was 30%, down from 37% in fiscal 2024. The company also took a $253 million charge in its fiscal first quarter for an agreed settlement with the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security over an export controls compliance matter, disclosed in the February 12 release. Any change in the China language on the call is the third thing to listen for.

How we measured the 93 report days

We pulled every Form 8-K Applied Materials filed with results of operations from SEC EDGAR: the Item 2.02 filings since August 2004 and the Item 12 filings that carried earnings before that, starting with the report of August 12, 2003. Ninety-two of the 93 were accepted after 4:00 PM Eastern, so the reaction session is the next trading day; the one exception, February 2, 2009, was filed before the open and its reaction day is that session. Moves come from Yahoo Finance daily bars adjusted for splits and dividends: the close-to-close change, the opening gap, the open-to-close move, and the same-day moves of the S&P 500, the PHLX Semiconductor index, Lam Research and KLA. For 2010 onward it is the same method as our week-ahead post for November 9-13, which this page extends back to 2003. This is descriptive history, not a forecast.

All 93 reports at a glance

The direction has been close to a coin flip, 48 up and 45 down, and the size is modest for a semiconductor stock: a median of 2.5%, next to 1.3% on an ordinary day and 0.48% for the S&P 500 on the same days. Twenty-three reports moved it 5% or more and only four moved it 10% or more. What has changed is the decade: 10 up and 16 down since 2020 with a median move of -1.7% and a median swing of 3.9%, after medians of +0.1% and +0.9% in the two earlier periods. Since the start of 2023 it is 5 up and 9 down, a median move of -2.1%, a median swing of 4.6% and a median opening gap of 5.8%, so the report day has become both more negative and bigger.

The opening gap reverses one time in three

Because Applied Materials reports after the close, the first price the market sets is the next morning's open. Across the 93 reports the median gap was 2.5% in either direction, and the stock closed on the other side of its previous close from the gap 32 times. When it gapped down, the median move from the open to the close was +0.8% across 51 cases; when it gapped up, the median was -0.9% across 42. That is the opposite of Cisco, whose gap held to the close on 83 of its 93 reports.

Size matters, though. Of the 41 gaps of 3% or more, only 7 reversed. The 20 gaps down 3% or more closed higher 4 times, and the 21 gaps up 3% or more closed lower 3 times. The reversals that did happen were large: on November 14, 2025 the stock opened 8.7% lower and closed up 1.2%, a 10.9% climb from the open, and on November 16, 2018 it opened 8.2% lower and closed up 1.1%. A small gap on AMAT report day has told you little about the close; a big one has usually held.

The last ten reports

The last ten show the pattern: the November 2025 reversal, the -14.1% of August 15, 2025 that never recovered during the day, and February 13, 2026, when an 11.1% gap higher faded to a close of +8.1%. Seven of the ten closed lower.

November has been the most reversal-prone report month

November has been the quietest of the four months by median swing, 2.3%, with 12 of its 23 reports up and only 5 moving the stock 5% or more. It is also the month where the gap most often lied: 10 of the 23 November reports closed on the other side of the gap. February has been the most often positive, 15 up of 24, and May the weakest, 8 up of 22 with a median move of -1.1%. August, the quarter before the year-end report, has had the widest swings at 3.4%.

Every November report since 2003

The best November, +14.3% on November 13, 2008, came on a day the S&P 500 rose 6.9%, so it was a market day as much as an Applied Materials day. The worst, -9.2% on November 15, 2024, followed a first-quarter revenue forecast of about $7.15 billion against a $7.25 billion consensus, as Reuters reported, with the S&P 500 down 1.3% the same day. Last November the company guided its first quarter to $6.85 billion, plus or minus $500 million, per the release; the stock gapped down 8.7% and closed up 1.2%.

The setup going in: a 45% drawdown, then a rebound

Applied Materials closed Wednesday, November 11 at $395.08, per Yahoo Finance. The path here is unusual. The stock set its record close of $723.00 on June 30, had more than doubled for the year by the August report, fell to a post-report high close of $542.28 on October 5, and then lost 13.6% on November 5, the day the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, closing at $319.25. From that close it has risen 23.8% in four sessions, including an 11.4% day on November 9. It is still 45.4% below the June record, 27.1% below the October 5 close, and under its 200-day moving average of about $446 by our count of the last 200 closes. In 2026 it has moved 5% or more on 45 sessions, against 16 in all of 2025.

We split the 93 reports by how the stock did in the 20 sessions before each one. Through Wednesday the figure is -11.5%.

The 22 reports that followed a slide of 5% or more were the calmest group in the record: 12 up and 10 down, a median move of +0.4%, a median swing of 1.6% and only 2 moves of 5% or more. The two deepest slides into a report, -13.1% before November 13, 2008 and -12.7% before November 15, 2007, were both followed by gains, +14.3% and +0.3%. At the other end, the 8 reports that came after a run of 15% or more closed lower 5 times with a median of -3.4%. Across all 93 the link between the run-up and the next-day move is weak, a correlation of -0.07, so treat the groups as description, not a rule. This year's slide also arrived with a sharp bounce in the last four sessions, which none of the past slides had.

Lam and KLA move with it, the S&P 500 does not

On the 93 report days, Lam Research moved in the same direction as Applied Materials 70 times, with a correlation of +0.72, and KLA 69 times, with a correlation of +0.68. Lam's median move on those days was 1.7% in either direction against 1.4% on an ordinary day. On the 23 days Applied Materials moved 5% or more, Lam went the same way 21 times by a median of 3.0%, and KLA 22 times. The PHLX Semiconductor index went the same way 66 times with a median move of 1.0%, no bigger than its median on any day, and the S&P 500 matched the direction on 53 of 93, a coin flip, with a median move of 0.48%.

The pattern held in 2025 and 2026: Lam fell 7.3% and KLA 8.4% on the -14.1% day in August 2025, and both rose with AMAT's +8.1% in February. An Applied Materials report has been a read on the equipment makers that day, and a much weaker one on chips as a whole.

What came after the report day

From the reaction-day close, the stock was higher five sessions later 46 times out of 93 and 20 sessions later 47 times, with a median 20-session change of +0.1%: no drift either way. After the 10 report-day drops of 5% or more, the next 20 sessions were up only 3 times, with a median of -2.6%, and after the 13 gains of 5% or more they were up 6 times. A big report-day loss has not been followed by a reliable bounce; August's -5.1% was followed by another 16.3% decline over the next 20 sessions.

The biggest Applied Materials report days since 2003

• -14.1% on Aug 15, 2025
• -9.2% on Nov 15, 2024
• -8.2% on May 18, 2018
• -8.2% on Feb 14, 2025
• -7.7% on Aug 17, 2018
• -7.5% on Nov 17, 2011
• +14.3% on Nov 13, 2008
• +13.8% on May 20, 2016
• +10.2% on Feb 13, 2008
• +9.0% on Nov 15, 2019
• +8.1% on May 16, 2014
• +8.1% on Feb 13, 2026

Three of the six worst days have come since November 2024, and the best day since 2020, +8.1% on February 13, 2026, came nine months ago. Report days have simply gotten bigger: the median swing since 2023 is 4.6%, almost double the long-run 2.5%.

How we handle a report like this, and what we leave alone

We do not forecast earnings, and the software does not trade the print itself. Three settings do the work. Earnings awareness is an opt-in rule, off by default, that keeps the auto-trader from opening a position in a stock whose report falls inside a window you pick, 3, 7 or 14 days ahead. The daily spend limit caps how much new money goes to work on any one morning. A fixed or trailing stop on every position decides the exit before the number, not during it. The settings glossary explains each one, and you can set those rules up in a few minutes.

One limit applies to every stop order: once its price is touched it becomes a market order, so when a stock gaps past it at the open, the fill comes near the open, not at the stop. Investor.gov explains how stop orders execute. Applied Materials adds a wrinkle: its small gaps have reversed a third of the time, so a stop set just under the previous close has often been filled at the morning low of a day that ended higher, while its gaps of 3% or more have held on 34 of 41. The size of a position held into the report matters more than where its stop sits. Our test of trailing stops from 1% to 8% and our count of how often the market drops 1%, 2% or 3% in a day cover the rest of that math. If you want to see how the rules behave on a sample account before connecting a broker, start with the demo.

The rest of the calendar

Applied Materials shares Thursday's after-close slot with Cisco, whose 93 reports since 2003 are in what CSCO did the day after every report. Nvidia reports on November 17 and its record is in what NVDA did the day after every report since 2010; the same week brings Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and TJX. Every date for the month is on the November 2026 stock market calendar, the October 14 chip-stock selloff has the sector's recent history, and how the S&P 500 does during earnings season covers the market-wide pattern.

Quick answers

When does Applied Materials report earnings?

After the market closes on Thursday, November 12, 2026, for its fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026. The conference call starts at 4:30 PM Eastern, 1:30 PM Pacific, with a webcast on the company's investor relations site.

What is Applied Materials expected to earn this quarter?

The company guided to non-GAAP EPS of $4.02, plus or minus $0.20, on revenue of $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million. Earnings Whispers put consensus at $4.06 and $10.30 billion on November 4, with a whisper number of $4.20; Hudson Labs had about $4.00 and $10.3 billion on October 12.

How much does AMAT stock usually move after earnings?

The median move the next session has been 2.5% in either direction across 93 reports since 2003, and 4.6% across the 14 reports since 2023. Twenty-three of the 93 moved it 5% or more and four moved it 10% or more.

Did Applied Materials stock go up or down after its last earnings report?

Down. After the August 13 report it opened 6.6% lower on August 14 and closed down 5.1%, even though revenue, EPS and the fourth-quarter guide all beat consensus.

What did AMAT do after last November's earnings?

It opened 8.7% lower on November 14, 2025 and closed up 1.2%, the largest open-to-close reversal of a down gap in its record. Across all 23 November reports since 2003 it closed higher 12 times, with a median swing of 2.3%.

Do Lam Research and KLA move with Applied Materials on report day?

Usually. Lam moved in the same direction on 70 of the 93 report days and KLA on 69, and on the 23 days AMAT moved 5% or more Lam went the same way 21 times by a median of 3.0%.

Historical figures are for information only. They describe what happened, not what will happen, and nothing here is investment advice.