Does the Stock Market Go Up During Earnings Season? Every Season Since 2000, and Why October Is Different

Third-quarter earnings season opens Tuesday, October 13, when JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Johnson and Johnson report, and runs through mid November. Every season brings the same question: does the stock market go up during earnings season? We measured all 107 reporting seasons since 2000 on the S&P 500, the same five-week window each time, and compared them with every other five-week stretch. The answer is more specific than yes or no.

Across all seasons the index rose 63% of the time with a median gain of 1.35%, which is slightly below the 1.78% median of the non-season windows and exactly the same hit rate. Earnings season as a whole is not a tailwind. But the four seasons are not alike. The October season, the one starting this week, has been the strongest by a wide margin: higher in 21 of 26 years, median gain 2.83%. The July season has been the weakest, higher in fewer than half of years. The calendar matters more than the earnings.

How we measured it

Rules of the count: S&P 500 daily closes from Yahoo Finance, January 2000 through October 2, 2026. For each calendar quarter end, the season window starts on the ninth trading day after the quarter ends (the week the banks report) and runs 26 trading days, roughly five weeks, which covers the stretch in which the large majority of S&P 500 companies report, per FactSet's weekly earnings tallies. That gives 107 seasons: 27 each for the January, April and July seasons and 26 for October, whose 2026 season is just starting. The comparison set is 107 non-overlapping windows of the same length drawn from the days outside every season. The gain is close to close across the window; the drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough fall inside it.

The results, season by season

• October season (third-quarter results, mid October to mid November): higher in 21 of 26 years, median +2.83%. The five losers were 2003 (-1.1%), 2007 (-6.2%), 2008 (-14.4%), 2012 (-3.1%) and last year, 2025 (-0.6%).
• April season (first-quarter results): higher in 19 of 27, median +1.47%. Includes the worst modern season outside 2008, April to May 2022 at -12.3%, and one of the best, April to May 2025 at +10.8%, the rebound from the tariff selloff.
• January season (fourth-quarter results): higher in 14 of 27, median +0.39%. A coin flip.
• July season (second-quarter results): higher in 13 of 27, median -0.13%. The only season with a negative median, dragged by July to August 2011 (-14.2%, the debt-ceiling downgrade) and offset by July to August 2022 (+11.6%, the best season in the set).

All 107 seasons: median +1.35%, higher 62.6% of the time. The 107 non-season windows: median +1.78%, higher 62.6% of the time.

The October pattern is partly the calendar. The window runs from mid October to mid November, which overlaps the historically strong start of the November to April stretch, the seasonal effect behind the old sell-in-May saying. It is also partly October's reputation for washing out: the 2002, 2011 and 2022 bear markets all bottomed in October, and the seasons that followed those lows were up 7.8%, 1.0% and 8.1%. We looked at whether October deserves its bad name separately; the short version is that October is volatile, not weak, and its earnings season inherits the rebounds.

Seasons are bumpier than their endings suggest

A season that ends up 2% rarely gets there in a straight line. The median worst drawdown inside a season is 3.7%, and 32 of the 107 seasons had a fall of 5% or more at some point, including seasons that finished positive. Last October's season is a fair example: the index dipped nearly 4% in the window and finished down 0.6%. Earnings season does not change the index's average return much, but it produces a steady supply of single-day gaps as individual companies beat or miss, and those gaps are where traders get hurt or paid.

What this means for the next five weeks

The 2026 setup is unusual for an October season. The index is within a percent of a record rather than climbing out of a hole, Brent is above $100, and the Fed raised rates in September with another meeting on October 27 and 28. Of the five losing October seasons, three (2007, 2012, 2025) started with the index near a high, so the record is not the reassurance it looks like. Wednesday's CPI report will shape the Fed meeting that falls inside this season, and Tesla's report on October 21 is the first big test of whether consumer demand survived $4.37 gasoline.

We run an auto-trader inside members' own brokerage accounts, and earnings season is the stretch where our rules do the most work. Three of them transfer to any account:

• Know the reporting date of everything you hold. A stock that gaps 10% on a miss does not respect a stop placed inside the gap. The honest choice before a report is to size the position for the gap or to not be in it.
• Size for the drawdown, not the median. A typical season dips 3.7% from its high on the way to a 1.35% gain, and one season in three dips 5% or more. Position sizing that survives a 5% index drop is the floor for the next five weeks.
• Trade the reaction, not the forecast. Beats that fall and misses that rise are routine in earnings season because the price already carried the expectation. A stop and a target set in advance react to the move itself, which is the only thing that pays.

If you want those rules held for you through the season, that is what JorgAI does in the brokerage account you already have. You can set up your rules before Tuesday's bank reports.

Quick answers

Does the stock market go up during earnings season? On average no more than usual. Since 2000 the S&P 500 rose in 63% of five-week reporting seasons with a median gain of 1.35%, against a 1.78% median for comparable non-season windows.

Which earnings season is the strongest? October, the third-quarter season: higher in 21 of 26 years since 2000 with a median gain of 2.83%. The July season is the weakest, higher in 13 of 27 years with a median of -0.13%.

When does Q3 2026 earnings season start? Tuesday, October 13, 2026, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Johnson and Johnson. The window we measure runs through November 18.

How much does the market fall during earnings season? The median worst dip inside a season is 3.7%, and 32 of 107 seasons since 2000 fell 5% or more at some point, including many that finished higher.

Data: S&P 500 daily closes from Yahoo Finance, January 2000 through October 2, 2026, computed by JorgAI. Season windows are 26 trading days starting on the ninth trading day after each quarter end. Past patterns do not predict future returns. This article is education, not investment advice.