October 2026 PPI Report: What the S&P 500 Did on 390 PPI Days

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Producer Price Index for October 2026 on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 AM Eastern, per its November schedule. It follows a September report in which final demand prices rose 1.3% in a month, the largest gain since March 2022, and 6.3% over 12 months, the most since December 2022. Economists expect October to come in at 0.4%, with the index excluding food and energy up 0.3%, per the TD Economics calendar dated November 6.

This page measures what the S&P 500 did on every PPI release day in the BLS archive, 390 of them since February 1994, against every other trading day in the same span and against CPI days. The short version: a PPI day has been an ordinary session. The median move was 0.58% in either direction against 0.53% on all days, and in the two years when inflation ran the market, 2008 and 2022, CPI day moved the index about twice as much as a normal day while PPI day did not. Friday's report still carries more than most, because it is the last producer-price reading before the Fed's December 8-9 meeting and futures already price a rate increase there.

• The release: Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:30 AM ET, covering October. The bond and stock markets are both open.
• September's report: final demand +1.3% on the month, goods +2.6%, services +0.8%, energy +10.8%; +6.3% over 12 months; excluding food and energy +0.7%; excluding food, energy and trade services +0.5%, per the BLS release.
• Consensus for October: +0.4% headline and +0.3% excluding food and energy (TD Economics). The Dow Jones survey that most headlines quote is usually published the day before.
• The Fed going in: the target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after a quarter-point increase in September and a hold in October. After Tuesday's CPI, CME FedWatch put a quarter-point increase on December 9 at 88.8% and a half-point at 11.2%, with no chance of a hold, per Investing.com.
• Stocks going in: the S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,520.93, down 0.38% on a CPI that came in a tenth hot on both headline and core, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.98%. Our CPI post has that day in full.

What the September report showed, and what to watch on Friday

September was an energy month. The final demand energy index rose 10.8% and accounted for more than 80% of the broad rise in goods prices; gasoline alone, up 20.3%, was about half of the goods increase. Services rose 0.8%, with a 1.4% rise in trade margins, the gap between what wholesalers and retailers pay and charge, making up nearly half of that gain. Strip out food, energy and trade services and prices still rose 0.5% on the month and 5.0% over the year, per the release. The table below is the 2026 record as the BLS published it on October 15; the four most recent months of any PPI are subject to revision.

Three things will decide how Friday reads. First, whether energy gives back any of September: the CPI's gasoline index rose 1.0% after seasonal adjustment in October, per the November 10 report, so another energy-led month is possible but a repeat of September's 20.3% is not what the consumer data showed. Second, trade services, the most volatile piece of the services index, which added 1.4% in September and can subtract as easily. Third, the index excluding food, energy and trade, the line the Fed's staff watch, which has printed 0.2% to 0.8% every month this year. Several PPI components, among them airline fares, portfolio management fees and physician services, feed directly into the PCE price index the Fed targets, and the October PCE report lands on Wednesday, November 25, per the BEA schedule.

How we measured the 390 PPI days

Release dates come from the BLS news-release archive, which lists every PPI release from February 1994 to October 2026. One of them, September 14, 2001, fell while the stock market was closed after the September 11 attacks and is dropped, which leaves 390 sessions. Prices are the S&P 500's daily open, high, low and close from Yahoo Finance, and the 10-year yield is the ^TNX series. For each day we take the close-to-close move, the opening gap, the open-to-close move and the high-to-low range, and compare them with all 8,241 trading days in the span and with the 391 CPI release days in it. No PPI and CPI release ever fell on the same day. Yahoo's S&P 500 open equals the prior close before about 2008, so every gap figure here uses 2008 onward, the same window as our CPI study. This is descriptive history, not a forecast.

What the S&P 500 did on 390 PPI days

Read across any row and the three columns barely differ. PPI days closed higher 54% of the time, the same as every other day. The median move was five hundredths of a point wider than a normal session, the share of 1% days was a point lower, and the share of 2% days was lower still. The 10-year yield moved a median 3.8 basis points, against 3.4 on all days and 4.2 on CPI days. The one line where PPI leads is the intraday range, 1.09% against 1.02%, which is the 8:30 AM swing that fades by the close.

The year-by-year picture is where the two reports part. In 2008 the median CPI-day move was 1.92% against 0.93% on PPI days and 1.11% on ordinary days; in 2022 it was 1.73% against 0.56% and 0.96%. Both years the market was trading inflation, and both years it traded it on CPI morning, not PPI morning. PPI's loudest year was 2020 at 1.20%, and that is two sessions of the pandemic crash, March 12 and June 11, landing on release days. This year has run the other way: the eleven PPI days of 2026 moved a median 0.58% against 0.26% on the ten CPI days, with six of the eleven closing higher.

• The opening gap is smaller than CPI's, and it holds a little less often. Since 2022 the median opening gap on PPI days has been 0.24%, against 0.42% on CPI days, with close-to-close moves of 0.55% and 0.71%. On the 49 PPI days since 2008 when the index opened at least 0.3% away from the prior close, it closed in the same direction 39 times, 80%, against 85% on the 68 comparable CPI days, and 19 of the 49 finished closer to the prior close than they opened.
• A PPI that follows CPI in the same week, as Friday's does, has been the quieter print. On the 62 such days since 2008 the index closed higher 39 times, a median move of 0.56% with a median gap of 0.20%. The market has usually already decided what it thinks about the month by the time PPI arrives.
• Producer inflation at 3% or more makes the day somewhat bigger. Since the final demand index became the headline in January 2014, 153 releases: on the 46 days when the 12-month rate in the report was 3% or higher, the median move was 0.67%, the median range 1.12% and the 10-year moved 4.1 basis points, with 22 of 46 closing higher. On the 107 days below 3% the figures were 0.52%, 0.86% and 3.0 basis points, with 56 of 107 higher. Friday's report arrives with the rate at 6.3%. Rates here are as the BLS publishes them today, which includes revisions.
• The biggest PPI days were never about PPI. March 12, 2020 (-9.51%) was the pandemic crash, October 15, 2008 (-9.03%) the financial crisis, June 11, 2020 (-5.89%) the first big pullback of the recovery, March 18, 2008 (+4.24%) the afternoon the Fed cut by three quarters of a point, and October 15, 1998 (+4.17%) the day of a surprise Fed cut. In 32 years no PPI release has produced a 2% day on its own.
• Nothing carries into the week after. Five sessions after a PPI day the index was higher 60% of the time with a median gain of 0.40%, against 58% and 0.35% after any day. The 32 PPI releases that fell in November closed higher 18 times with a median move of +0.13%, and none moved 2%.

The 2026 PPI days so far

The figures in the news on each of those mornings were the first prints, which the BLS has since revised in several cases, so the third column is the record as it stands now rather than the surprise traders saw. Six of the eleven days closed higher. The widest was June 11, up 1.75% on a day the May index was first reported at a soft 0.1%, and the weakest March 18, down 1.36%. October 15, the day of the 1.3% September print that was more than double the forecast, opened 0.41% lower and closed up 0.33%, while the 10-year yield fell about 10 basis points on a morning that also carried September retail sales. A hot print and a quiet day is the normal PPI pairing.

Why Friday's PPI carries more than usual

The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September, to 3.75% to 4.00%, and held in October. After Tuesday's CPI, fed funds futures priced a December increase as certain, with the only question its size: 88.8% for a quarter point and 11.2% for a half point on Tuesday night per Investing.com, and about 15% for a half point by Wednesday morning per CNBC. Governor Waller had said a half-point move should be on the table if core CPI came in around 0.3%, which it did. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called the CPI report "borderline disturbing" and said "we've got a real inflation issue on our hands," and Dallas Fed President Logan said she sees a need for two more quarter-point increases, all in the same CNBC report.

Before the December 8-9 meeting the committee will see Friday's PPI, the October PCE report on November 25 and the November jobs report on December 4. The November CPI lands on December 10, the morning after the decision, so this PPI and the PCE figure it feeds are the last inflation readings in hand. The minutes of the October meeting come out on Wednesday, November 18 at 2:00 PM ET, per the Fed's calendar. What stocks did after every December decision since 1994 is in our December Fed post, what they did after every pause in the October one, and the quiet stretch before the meeting, which starts November 28, is in the blackout-period study.

How to prepare for November 13 without predicting the number

We build an automated trader, and PPI mornings are one of the days it is set up for rather than around. The practical points, from the data above and from how our members' accounts are configured. Anyone can set up the same rules in a free account before the report lands.

• Size positions for a 0.6% to 0.7% day. That is the median PPI-day move with producer inflation above 3%, and the range runs past 1.1%. A stop that sits 0.5% away is inside the normal morning.
• Expect less of the day in the gap than on CPI morning, and do not fade it by reflex. The median PPI gap since 2022 is 0.24%, about half of CPI's, and direction held 80% of the time on gaps of 0.3% or more. The reversal days are the minority.
• Watch the 10-year as much as the index. The bond market moved a median 4.1 basis points on PPI days with inflation above 3%, and Friday's bond market is open after Wednesday's holiday closure. Rate-sensitive sectors take their cue from that number before the index does.
• Read the core line and trade services, not just the headline. September's 1.3% was mostly energy. The index excluding food, energy and trade is the line that moves the PCE forecast, and it comes a few seconds later in the same release.

Let the exits run at the broker. A stop-loss and a take-profit that already sit at the broker do not need you to be awake at 8:30. How to automate stop-losses covers the mechanics, our trailing-stop study shows how tight is too tight on big-range days, and the settings glossary lists every rule a member can set. Members set theirs once from the start page and the auto-trader carries them through every report.

What comes after PPI

The week of November 16 brings Nvidia on Tuesday, November 17, the retail earnings run with Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, TJX and Walmart, the Fed minutes on Wednesday and October retail sales, which third-party calendars list for Tuesday, November 17. The October PCE report and the second estimate of third-quarter GDP come together on November 25, the November jobs report on December 4, the Fed decision on December 9 and the November CPI on December 10. Every date for the month is in the November calendar, the week's other releases are in the November 9-13 week-ahead, and the VIX guide shows what each volatility level has meant for forward returns, a more useful input on a release week than a forecast of the number.

Quick answers

What time is the October 2026 PPI report?

Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern, 5:30 AM Pacific, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Stocks open an hour later; the bond market, closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, is open.

What was the September 2026 PPI?

Final demand prices rose 1.3% on the month, the largest gain since March 2022, and 6.3% over 12 months, the most since December 2022. Goods rose 2.6% on a 10.8% jump in energy, services 0.8%, and the index excluding food, energy and trade services 0.5%.

What is expected for the October PPI?

A 0.4% rise in final demand prices and 0.3% excluding food and energy, per the TD Economics calendar of November 6. The 12-month rate would stay above 6% on those numbers.

Does the PPI report move the stock market?

Rarely by itself. Across 390 PPI days since 1994 the S&P 500's median move was 0.58% against 0.53% on all trading days, it closed higher 54% of the time either way, and no release has produced a 2% day on its own. The day gets somewhat bigger when producer inflation is above 3%: a median move of 0.67% and a range of 1.12%.

Is CPI or PPI more important for stocks?

CPI. In 2008 and 2022, the two years inflation drove the market, CPI days moved the index 1.92% and 1.73% at the median while PPI days moved it 0.93% and 0.56%. Since 2022 the opening gap on CPI mornings has been 0.42% against 0.24% on PPI mornings.

Historical figures are for information only. They describe what happened, not what will happen, and nothing here is investment advice.