Nebius Earnings November 12, 2026: What NBIS Did on Every Report Day Since Its 2024 Return (8 Reports)

Nebius Group reports third-quarter 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, November 12, 2026, and holds its conference call at 8:00 AM Eastern, according to the company's October 30 notice. Because the numbers come out before the bell, Thursday's session is the reaction day.

Nebius has reported eight times since its shares returned to Nasdaq in October 2024. The stock rose on six of those report days and fell on two, with a median move of +3.7%, and three of the eight moved it 15% or more. The opening price has been a poor guide: on four of the eight days the stock opened on one side of the prior close and finished on the other.

• The report: Thursday, November 12, before the open; call at 8:00 AM Eastern.
• Nebius's own targets for 2026: revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion and annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end, reaffirmed in August.
• Analyst consensus for the quarter: about $905 million to $907 million of revenue, per GuruFocus and TradingKey.
• The stock going in: $134.00 at Tuesday's close, down 35.2% over the last 20 sessions and 53.3% below its record close of $286.69 on June 18.
• One day earlier: CoreWeave filed its quarterly results after Tuesday's close, so Wednesday is its reaction day. Nebius has moved the same way as CoreWeave on all six of CoreWeave's earlier report days.

What Nebius has guided, and what analysts expect

In its first-quarter letter in May, Nebius said it was on track for $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion of revenue and $7 billion to $9 billion of ARR by year-end, and in August it reaffirmed its full-year guidance across all metrics, raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 GW and said it expects more than $9 billion of customer prepayments in 2026. ARR is the company's measure of AI cloud revenue in the last month of a quarter multiplied by 12.

The first half brought in about $981 million, so the full-year range implies roughly $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion in the second half; that is our arithmetic, not company guidance. Consensus for the third quarter, about $906 million, would leave $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion for the fourth. On earnings, TradingKey put the consensus at an adjusted loss of about $0.72 a share, and GuruFocus cited estimates from roughly $0.69 to $1.11. The figures to set against the targets are ARR, $3.0 billion at the end of June against $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end, the prepayment total and the contracted power target.

What happened after the last report

On August 12, Nebius reported second-quarter revenue of $582.3 million, ARR of $3.0 billion and a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin in its AI cloud business, and the stock rose 34.1%, the biggest report-day move in its record. CoreWeave had reported the evening before and rose 19.3% the same day. A week later Nebius priced an upsized $5.0 billion offering of convertible notes. From the August 12 close to Tuesday, Nebius fell 48.3%, CoreWeave 54.8%, Nvidia 24.5% and the Nasdaq-100 6.7%.

How we measured the eight report days

We read every Form 6-K Nebius has filed on SEC EDGAR since its shares resumed trading on October 21, 2024, and kept the eight that carried quarterly results. All eight came out before the U.S. open, per Nebius's own date notices and newswire timestamps, so the reaction session is the same day. From Yahoo Finance daily bars we measured the opening gap against the prior close, the move from open to close, the close-to-close change, the high-to-low range and volume against the prior 20 sessions' average. CoreWeave's report days come from its Item 2.02 Form 8-K filings; it reports after the close, so its reaction is the next session. Eight reports is a short record, so this is a description of what happened, not a pattern to bet on.

Every Nebius report day since its 2024 return

Three readings stand out. The big days have been up days: +18.6% in August 2025, +15.7% in May 2026 and +34.1% in August 2026, and each of them opened higher and kept going. The opening gap has otherwise been unreliable: in February 2025 the stock opened 10.7% lower and closed 3.2% higher, and in November 2025 it opened 3.8% higher and closed 7.0% lower. And the sessions are wide. The median report day traded across a 13.2% range from high to low, against 7.5% on a typical Nebius day, on 2.6 times the usual volume.

The close-to-close numbers need one more piece of context. Nebius is a volatile stock on ordinary days: its median daily move since the return to Nasdaq is 4.2% in either direction, so the 5.6% median on report days is not far above normal. What separates report days is the range inside the session and the size of the outliers.

What came after

The week after has been rougher than the report day. Five sessions later the stock was lower five times out of eight, with a median of -5.4%. The two most recent big gains both faded quickly: May 2026's +15.7% was followed by -7.5% over the next five sessions, and August 2026's +34.1% by -13.6%. Twenty sessions out, the record is mixed: five up and three down, with a median of +1.5%.

The CoreWeave read-through

CoreWeave is the closest listed comparison: another AI cloud provider renting out Nvidia-based capacity. It reports after the close, so its results trade the next morning, and Nebius has followed it every time.

Nebius moved in the same direction as CoreWeave on all six days. CoreWeave fell after five of its six reports, and on the four that did not coincide with a Nebius report, Nebius fell every time, by a median of 5.2%, while CoreWeave's own drops ranged from 2.5% to 20.8%. The one up day was August 12, when both companies' results hit the same session. CoreWeave reported again after Tuesday's close, which puts its reaction on Wednesday, one session before Nebius reports.

The setup going in

Nebius closed Tuesday, November 10 at $134.00, per Yahoo Finance. That is down 35.2% over the last 20 sessions, the deepest slide into any of its reports; the previous deepest were -18.8% before the November 2025 report, when the stock fell 7.0% on the day, and -16.0% before February 2026, when it rose 1.3%. It is 53.3% below its record close of $286.69 on June 18 and still up 60.1% for 2026.

The slide has been shared across AI infrastructure. Over the same 20 sessions CoreWeave fell 37.4%, Nvidia 26.1% and the Nasdaq-100 9.3%, while the S&P 500 fell 3.6%. Two earlier slides are not a sample, and none of this says which way Thursday goes.

How we handle a report like this, and what we leave alone

We do not forecast earnings, and the software does not trade the print itself. Three settings do the work. Earnings awareness is an opt-in rule, off by default, that keeps the auto-trader from opening a position in a stock whose report falls inside a window you pick, 3, 7 or 14 days ahead. The daily spend limit caps how much new money goes to work on any one morning. A fixed or trailing stop on every position decides the exit before the number, not during it. The settings glossary explains each one, and you can set those rules up in a few minutes.

Nebius reports before the bell, so the first price any rule sees is the 9:30 open, and with Nebius that open has pointed the wrong way on half its report days. A stop order becomes a market order once its price is touched, so a stock that gaps past it fills near the open, not at the stop; Investor.gov explains how stop orders execute. With a median intraday range of 13% and moves of 15% or more on three of eight report days, the size of a position held into the report matters more than where its stop sits. Our test of trailing stops from 1% to 8% shows how tight stops behave on stocks that swing this much, and you can watch the rules on a demo account before connecting a broker.

The rest of the week

Cisco reports after Thursday's close, and its record, all 93 reports since 2003, is in what CSCO did the day after every report. Applied Materials reports the same evening; its history is in our November 9-13 week-ahead post. Nvidia reports on November 17 and has its own page, what NVDA did the day after every report since 2010. The full month is on the November 2026 stock market calendar, and how the S&P 500 does during earnings season covers the market-wide pattern.

Quick answers

When does Nebius report earnings?

Before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, November 12, 2026, with a conference call at 8:00 AM Eastern, 5:00 AM Pacific. Nebius announced the date on October 30.

What is Nebius expected to report?

About $905 million to $907 million of revenue, more than 500% above the year-earlier quarter, with an adjusted loss of about $0.72 a share in TradingKey's figures. The company's own targets are $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion of revenue for 2026 and $7 billion to $9 billion of ARR by year-end.

How much does NBIS stock move on earnings?

Across eight report days since October 2024, the median close-to-close move was 5.6% in either direction, the median high-to-low range was 13.2%, and three days moved 15% or more.

Did Nebius stock go up or down after its last earnings?

Up. On August 12, 2026 it opened 17.0% higher and closed up 34.1%, its biggest report day so far. It gave back 13.6% over the next five sessions.

Does CoreWeave's earnings report move Nebius?

On all six of CoreWeave's report reaction days since May 2025, Nebius moved in the same direction. On the four that were not also Nebius report days, Nebius fell each time, by a median of 5.2%.

Historical figures are for information only. They describe what happened, not what will happen, and nothing here is investment advice.