TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings on October 15: A Record Quarter Is Already Known, So Here Is What TSM and Nvidia Did on All 39 Report Days Since 2017

TSMC reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15, at 2:00 PM Taiwan time, which is 2:00 AM Eastern, per its investor site. Because the numbers land before the U.S. open, the reaction shows up in Thursday's regular session for the New York-listed shares, ticker TSM, and in the chip stocks that depend on TSMC's factories, Nvidia first among them.

Two things make this report unusual. First, most of the revenue is already public: TSMC publishes sales every month, and July through September add up to a record quarter above the top of the company's own forecast. Second, the stock goes into the report down about 9% from the record it set on October 5, after a memory-chip scare in Asia this week that has little to do with TSMC's business. So the question for Thursday is not the quarter. It is the fourth-quarter outlook, the margin, and whether a stock that has already pulled back treats good news as good news. We measured how TSM and Nvidia have actually traded on all 39 report days since 2017 to put numbers on that.

What is already known: a record quarter

TSMC's monthly revenue reports for the quarter: July NT$467.6 billion (up 44.7% from a year earlier), August NT$514.8 billion (up 53.3%), September NT$511.9 billion (up 54.6%). The three months total about NT$1.494 trillion, a record quarter. In July the company guided third-quarter revenue to $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, with a gross margin of 65% to 67% and an operating margin of 56% to 58%, after a second quarter of $40.20 billion at a 67.7% gross margin. On any plausible exchange rate the reported quarter lands above the top of that revenue range, in the mid-$46 billion to $47 billion area.

That leaves three numbers to watch on Thursday. The gross margin, where the question is whether the ramp of its newest process and currency moves pulled it below the 67.7% of last quarter. The fourth-quarter revenue guide, which carries the AI-demand story into 2027. And capital spending, which is the earliest read on how much capacity TSMC thinks its customers will need next year.

What the stock does on report day: 39 reports measured

We took every quarterly results release from January 2017 through July 2026, 39 of them, using the dates of TSMC's results filings on SEC EDGAR and daily closes from Yahoo Finance. TSMC reports before the U.S. open, so the move is the report day's close against the prior day's close. Across the 39:

• Median move: 3.1%, up or down, with an average of 3.3%. Twenty of the 39 moves were 3% or larger and nine were 5% or larger.
• Direction: up 24 times, down 15. TSMC has rewarded more report days than it has punished, the opposite of the pattern in Netflix's record.
• The two biggest gains were both 9.8%, on January 18, 2024 and October 17, 2024, the two reports that first put numbers on AI demand. The biggest drop was 5.7% on April 19, 2018, a smartphone-demand warning, followed by 5.5% in July 2021 and 5.1% in July 2023.
• The day's direction tends to hold for a week. In 30 of 39 cases the stock was still on the same side of the pre-report close five trading days later. Twenty trading days later it was higher than before the report in 26 of 39, by a median of 1.8%.
• October reports have been quiet. The nine October reports since 2017 have a median move of just 0.5% down, with one exception: the 9.8% jump in October 2024. The last three reports were small: up 4.4% in January, down 3.1% in April, down 2.3% in July.

What it means for Nvidia and the chip stocks

TSMC makes the chips that Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Broadcom and Qualcomm design, so its report is read as a demand signal for all of them. The sympathy move is real but smaller than people assume. On TSMC's 39 report days, Nvidia's median move was 1.9%, and it moved 2% or more on 16 of them. Nvidia moved in the same direction as TSM on 24 of the 39 days: when TSM rose, Nvidia rose 14 times out of 24; when TSM fell, Nvidia fell 10 times out of 15. The down days line up more reliably than the up days, which fits how the market treats a supplier: a strong quarter is expected, a weak outlook is contagious.

The context this week makes that asymmetry matter. TSM fell on Tuesday as a claim about Chinese DRAM output hit the memory makers and spread to the rest of the sector, as Yahoo Finance reported, even though TSMC does not make memory. The stock closed Tuesday at $442.71, down 8.9% from its October 5 record close of $485.80 and still up about 47% for the year. Nvidia closed at $225.82, about 6% below its own record from October 6. A pullback into a report cuts both ways: it lowers the bar for the headline numbers, and it means a cautious fourth-quarter guide would be landing on nervous holders. If you are weighing whether AI stocks are stretched, Thursday's capital-spending number is the most concrete data point you will get this month.

How to handle Thursday

• Size for a 3% day, and allow for 10%. The median report-day move is 3.1%, but two of the last eleven reports moved the stock nearly 10%. Position sizing that treats a 10% gap as an ordinary outcome is the only honest way to hold through it.
• The decision is made before 2:00 AM Eastern. By the time U.S. trading opens, the numbers have been out for seven and a half hours and the price has already moved in Taipei and in the pre-market. A market order at 9:30 fills at whatever that price is, which is slippage in its purest form. Decide Wednesday whether you are holding through, and at what size.
• Watch the guide, not the quarter. The quarter is known. On the three report days when TSM fell 5% or more, the quarters were fine and the outlooks were not. If the fourth-quarter revenue guide and capital spending come in strong, the history says the first day's direction has usually carried for a week.
• Nvidia holders: expect about two thirds of the move, in the same direction more often on bad days. A TSMC disappointment has pulled Nvidia down 10 times in 15; a TSMC beat has lifted it 14 times in 24. Plan for the first, hope for the second.

Rules like these are easier to write down than to follow at 6:30 in the morning with the pre-market already moving. If you would rather have them applied for you, in your own brokerage account, that is what JorgAI does. You can set your rules up in a few minutes, before Thursday.

Quick answers

When does TSMC report Q3 2026 earnings? Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 2:00 PM Taiwan time, which is 2:00 AM Eastern, with the earnings conference at the same time. U.S. shares react in Thursday's regular session.

What is TSMC expected to report? The company guided third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion with a 65% to 67% gross margin. Its monthly reports already show about NT$1.494 trillion for the quarter, a record, which is above the top of that range on any plausible exchange rate. The fourth-quarter guide, the margin and capital spending are the open questions.

How much does TSM stock move on earnings? Across its 39 reports since January 2017, the median report-day move was 3.1%, with nine moves of 5% or more and two of 9.8%. It rose on 24 of the 39.

Does Nvidia move on TSMC earnings? Usually a little. Nvidia's median move on TSMC's report days was 1.9%, in the same direction as TSM on 24 of 39 days, and more reliably on the days TSM fell.

Why is TSMC stock down this week? A memory-chip scare in Asia on Tuesday, tied to a Chinese DRAM output claim, hit the whole sector; TSMC does not make memory. The stock closed October 13 at $442.71, about 9% below its October 5 record.

Data: TSMC quarterly results dates from its Form 6-K filings on SEC EDGAR, January 2017 through July 2026; TSM and NVDA daily closes from Yahoo Finance through October 13, 2026; revenue and guidance from TSMC's investor relations site; all moves computed by JorgAI, close to close, price only. Past patterns do not predict future returns. This article is education, not investment advice.