Intel Q3 2026 Earnings on October 29: What to Expect, and What Intel Stock Did the Day After Every Report Since 2010

Intel reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, after the market closes, so the stock reacts on Friday, October 30, the day after the Fed's October 28 decision. It arrives with the stock up about 149% for the year and 35% below its June high, a JPMorgan upgrade on Monday that called the risk and reward balanced, and a company guide that implies the first clean quarter of growth in a long time. This preview covers the time and the numbers that matter, and then what we measured about Intel's stock the day after every one of its 70 quarterly reports since 2010, including the reason the last two years are a different animal. Education, not advice.

When does Intel report Q3 2026 earnings?

Thursday, October 29, 2026, after the close. Intel's investor notice sets the conference call for 2:00 PM Pacific, 5:00 PM Eastern, with a public webcast on its investor site. Because the release lands after the bell, Friday's session carries the reaction. It is the last of the big October reports: the week before holds Netflix, GM, Tesla and Meta, and the Fed decides on the Wednesday.

What Wall Street expects

Intel's own second-quarter release guided third-quarter revenue to $15.8 to $16.8 billion with non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 a share. Published consensus sits a touch below the midpoint on revenue and between $0.37 and $0.40 on earnings, so the bar is roughly the guide. The second quarter itself was the setup: revenue of $16.1 billion, up 25% from a year earlier and the fastest growth in more than fifteen years, non-GAAP earnings of $0.42 against a $0.19 estimate, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 41.8%, about 2.8 points above the company's own guide. Data Center and AI revenue rose 59% to $6.3 billion; Intel Foundry revenue rose 31% to $5.8 billion.

Three things the report turns on

• Gross margin and capital spending together. The second-quarter margin beat was the reason the stock had rallied, and the July report still fell 7.9% the next day, after a 13% after-hours jump, because the capital spending plan moved above $20 billion for the year and the foundry segment lost $2.1 billion with only $293 million of outside revenue. The third-quarter margin against the guide, the fourth-quarter margin guide and the spending number decide Friday together.
• Data center share. The 59% growth in data center revenue is the number the market is paying for, and JPMorgan's upgrade on October 19 came with a warning that share losses in client and data center remain the concern. Any sign the growth rate is slowing, or that it is price-driven, will be read as the top.
• Foundry and the 18A ramp. Foundry revenue, external customer wins and the cost of the manufacturing build-out. Intel does not need a new customer announcement to hold the stock, but it needs the capital spending plan to stay inside what it said in July.

The JPMorgan move matters less than it sounds. The upgrade was to Neutral with an $85 target, below Monday's close, and the stated reason was valuation after a 36% drop from the June peak. That is a 'no longer short' call, not a 'buy'. The stock closed Monday up 2.4% and was giving that back by Tuesday morning.

What Intel stock has done the day after every report since 2010

We took every quarterly earnings report Intel has filed since January 2010, 70 of them through July 2026, using the Form 8-K filing dates on SEC EDGAR, and matched each to the stock's close the next trading day against the close before the release.

• The stock rose the next day after 32 of 70 reports (46%). The median move, up or down, was 4.1%.
• A 5% move happened 34 times, nearly half of all reports; a 10% move 9 times. The largest gain was +23.6% after the April 2026 report, the largest loss -26.1% after August 2024, when the dividend was suspended and layoffs announced.
• Since 2024 the reactions have doubled. Across the 11 reports from January 2024 onward the median move is 8.5%, against 3.6% for the 59 reports before, and the stock rose the next day after only 3 of the 11. In order: +9.3%, -11.9%, -9.2%, -26.1%, +7.8%, -2.9%, -6.7%, -8.5%, +0.3%, -17.0%, +23.6%, -7.9%.
• October reaction days have leaned up but swung hard. 15 reports have reacted in October; the stock rose after 9, and the October moves include +10.7% (2022), +9.3% (2023), -10.6% (2020) and -11.7% (2021). Last October's reaction was a rare flat day at +0.3%.

The last two years tell the story of a company being repriced in both directions: a turnaround that the market first refused to believe (the stock fell the next day after six of the seven reports from January 2024 to July 2025, including the -26% day) and then, after the April 2026 margin beat, believed all at once (+23.6%). A stock that can move a quarter of its value on a report is priced on the guide, not the quarter.

Does the first day's move hold?

We also checked what happened in the five trading days after a big reaction. After the 23 reports where Intel fell 5% or more the next day, the median result a week later was -10.0% from the pre-report close, and the stock was lower still a week on in 65% of cases. After the 11 reports where it rose 5% or more, the median was +8.8% a week later and the gain was still intact 55% of the time. The asymmetry is the useful part: Intel's bad earnings days have tended to keep going, which argues against buying the first dip, while its good ones have been a coin flip over the following week.

Where the stock sits going in

Intel closed Monday, October 19 at $92.03, up about 149% for the year from $36.90 and 35% below its June 22 closing high of $140.94. The July report produced a 7.9% drop on the day after, on the spending plan rather than the quarter; the stock then slid through the autumn with the rest of the AI and chip complex before this week's bounce. TSMC's report two weeks ago set the sector tone; Intel's is the last word of the month on whether the manufacturing turnaround is being paid for by margins.

How to hold Intel through the report

• Size for a 9% day. The recent median is the honest expectation and the record holds a 26% day. A position that would hurt at that size is too big for Thursday night. Position sizing is the lever.
• A stop does not work across an after-close release. The stock opens Friday wherever the report and the call put it, and a stop fills there. Reduce before the close Thursday if the gap is more than you can carry. The earnings-season guide explains the gap problem in detail.
• Respect the asymmetry. Intel's own history says a 5% drop has usually gone further in the week after, and a 5% gain has held about half the time. If you hold through and the report is poor, the record argues for taking the first exit, not waiting for the bounce. The playbook has the four-outcome template.
• Do not trade Intel on the Fed. The decision is Wednesday and the report is Thursday night. A good Fed day and a bad Intel guide are both possible, and our Nvidia earnings guide covers why single-stock reports override the macro tape for that one name.

JorgAI exists for nights like October 29: the position cap, the stop, the profit target and the daily loss brake are set once and enforced inside your own brokerage account while the report lands. Set your rules before Thursday's close rather than after Friday's open.

Quick answers

What time does Intel report earnings on October 29, 2026? After the market closes, with the conference call at 2:00 PM Pacific, 5:00 PM Eastern. The stock reacts on Friday, October 30.

How much does Intel stock move on earnings? Across all 70 reports since 2010 the median next-day move is 4.1% and the stock rose 46% of the time. Since 2024 the median move has been 8.5%, with a 26% drop in August 2024 and a 23.6% gain in April 2026.

What is expected from Intel's Q3 2026 earnings? Intel guided revenue of $15.8 to $16.8 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 a share. Published consensus is near the guide. The second quarter delivered $16.1 billion of revenue, up 25%, and a 41.8% non-GAAP gross margin.

Why did JPMorgan upgrade Intel? On October 19 JPMorgan moved Intel to Neutral from Underweight with an $85 target, citing a balanced risk and reward after a 36% fall from the June peak and better execution under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, while flagging continued share losses.

Data: quarterly earnings report dates from Intel's Form 8-K filings (item 2.02) on SEC EDGAR, January 2010 through July 2026; daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance; moves are close-to-close from the report day to the next trading day. Guidance and second-quarter figures from Intel's Q2 2026 press release filed July 23, 2026; report timing from Intel's investor notice; the analyst move from published coverage on October 19, 2026. Past moves do not predict this report's. This article is education, not investment advice.