T-Bills Pay 4.9% and the 10-Year Is Above 5%: Should You Move Your Money Out of Stocks?

A 6-month Treasury bill paid 4.33% at the September 30 close, the 1-year 4.54%, and the 2-year note 4.88%, all backed by the U.S. government and, for most savers, exempt from state income tax. With the 10-year above 5% and stocks down three sessions into quarter-end, the question in a lot of inboxes this week is blunt: why hold stocks at all? This guide answers it with data rather than a slogan. We pulled every calendar-year S&P 500 return since 1985 and every two-year stretch inside them, put them next to today's bill yields, and then explain the part most articles skip: it was never an either-or choice, and a rules-based approach is the middle path.

Since 1985 the S&P 500 has returned more than 5% in 26 of 40 calendar years, before dividends, and averaged 10.4% a year. It has also lost money in 10 of those years, three of them by more than 19%. A 4.88% two-year note is a certainty; stocks are a distribution. The right question is how much of your money belongs in each, and what rules govern the stock side.

What Treasuries actually pay right now

From the Treasury's daily yield curve for September 30, 2026: 1-month 4.02%, 3-month 4.20%, 6-month 4.33%, 1-year 4.54%, 2-year 4.88%, 5-year 5.09%, 10-year 5.29%, 30-year 5.64%. Two features stand out. The curve slopes upward, so you are paid more to lock money up longer, which was not true for most of 2023-2024. And the long end is at levels not seen since 2002: the 30-year's 5.64% is the highest close in the Treasury's data over that span, and the 10-year has not closed at 5.29% or above since 2002. What that does to stocks is its own article; here the point is simpler. Risk-free money has not paid this well in a generation of investors' memory.

Bills are bought at auction or on the secondary market through any brokerage, or directly at TreasuryDirect. Interest is taxed federally but exempt from state and local income tax, which matters in high-tax states. A money market fund holding Treasuries gets you most of the same yield with daily liquidity.

What stocks have paid: 40 years of the S&P 500

We took the S&P 500's December closes from 1985 through 2025 from Yahoo Finance's history and computed each calendar year's price return. Dividends are excluded, which understates stocks by roughly 1.5 to 2 percentage points a year, so every stock figure below is conservative.

• Average calendar-year return: +10.4%. Median: +13.1%.
• Years above +5%: 26 of 40. Years below +5%: 14 of 40. Negative years: 10 of 40.
• Worst years: 2008 (-38.5%), 2002 (-23.4%), 2022 (-19.4%), 2001 (-13.0%), 2000 (-10.1%).
• Best years: 1995 (+34.1%), 1997 (+31.0%), 2013 (+29.6%), 2019 (+28.9%), 1989 (+27.3%).
• Two-year stretches, which is the fair comparison to a 2-year note: of the 38 rolling two-year periods, 28 beat a 4.88% note compounded (a 10.0% hurdle), 5 lost money outright, and 5 made money but less than the note would have.

Read that as a distribution, not a promise. Roughly three years in four, stocks beat today's bill yield. Roughly one year in four they do not, and one year in four they lose money, sometimes a great deal. That is the trade: a certain 4.88% against a range that averages twice as much but includes 2008.

The case for bills, stated honestly

It is a strong case for a specific kind of money. Any dollar you will need within two or three years, an emergency fund, a house down payment, tuition, belongs in bills or a Treasury money market at these yields, full stop. The 2008 and 2022 rows above are why. It is also a strong case for the portion of a portfolio that exists to let you sleep, whatever that percentage is for you. And it is a reasonable case for anyone who was holding stocks only because cash paid nothing; that reason is gone.

Where the case gets weak is as a market call. Moving out of stocks entirely because yields are high assumes you will know when to move back, and the historical record of that timing is poor. October 2023 is the recent example: the 10-year touched 5%, cash looked unbeatable, and the S&P 500 rose more than 20% over the following twelve months. The bill investor earned their 5%. The investor who sold stocks to buy the bill gave up the rest.

The middle path: keep the cash, define the risk on the rest

We build an AI auto-trading platform, and the way our users actually resolve this question is worth describing because it is not either-or. The account's cash sits at the broker earning whatever the broker's sweep or money market pays. The trading system does not touch all of it. It deploys only what the user's sizing rules allow: a dollar amount per trade, a cap on how many positions can be open, and a cap on total exposure. Everything above that cap stays in cash by construction, not by willpower.

On the deployed portion, the risk is defined in advance rather than hoped for. Every position carries a stop-loss and take-profit at the broker. A daily loss brake halts new entries for the day when a dollar limit is hit. And when the tape gets choppy, as it did this week, a system built to wait for setups simply waits more: across all accounts on our platform, the AI's calls went from 55% hold on September 25 to 72% hold on September 29 and 30, with fewer trades placed and no rule changed. That is what a defined-risk stock allocation looks like next to a bill ladder: the bills are the certainty, the rules are what keep the stock side from being the 2008 row.

If you want to see how that behaves without committing anything, every JorgAI account can run the same rules on a free brokerage paper account with real-time data. Start there. Our guides to position sizing, five risk management strategies, and whether automated trading is safe cover the rules themselves.

How to decide, in four questions

1. When will you need the money? Under three years: bills. Longer: the rest of these questions apply.
2. What loss would make you sell everything? Whatever that number is, size your stock exposure so a 2022-style year (-19%) does not reach it. Bills hold the remainder.
3. Do you have rules, or opinions? Opinions sell at the bottom. Stops at the broker and a daily loss limit do not. If you have neither, either build them or keep the stock side small until you do; trading psychology is honest about why.
4. Are you locking in or laddering? A 2-year note at 4.88% is attractive, but a ladder of 3, 6, 12, and 24-month bills keeps money coming due if yields go higher still, or if a 2022-style year hands you a better entry into stocks.

None of this is personal advice; it is the data and the structure. The certain 4.88% is real. So is the 10.4% average with a 2008 inside it. Most people should own both, and the stock side should have rules. JorgAI enforces those rules inside the brokerage account you already have.

Frequently asked questions

Are T-bills a good investment right now?

For money needed within two to three years, yes: 6-month bills paid 4.33% and the 2-year note 4.88% at the September 30 close, backed by the U.S. government and exempt from state income tax. For long-term money, they are a floor and a sleep-well allocation, not a replacement for stocks.

Should I sell stocks and buy Treasuries at 5%?

Selling everything is a timing bet with a poor record; the last time the 10-year touched 5%, in October 2023, stocks rose more than 20% over the next year. Moving the money you need soon, or the share that lets you hold the rest through a bad year, is a different and reasonable decision.

How do T-bills compare to stocks historically?

Since 1985 the S&P 500 has beaten a 5% return in 26 of 40 calendar years before dividends and averaged 10.4%, but it lost money in 10 of those years. Bills never lose principal if held to maturity. Stocks pay more on average; bills pay for certain.

Is a money market fund the same as T-bills?

A Treasury money market fund holds bills and similar paper, so its yield tracks bill yields closely with daily liquidity and a small expense ratio. Buying bills directly at TreasuryDirect or through a broker locks the exact rate to maturity.

Can I hold cash and still use an automated trading system?

Yes. On JorgAI the system deploys only what your per-trade size, open-position cap, and total-exposure cap allow; the rest of the account stays in cash at your broker. The stock side runs with stops at the broker and a daily loss brake.